Lithuania could be headed toward a change of government, preliminary numbers from the country’s electoral commission indicated on Monday, as voters handed the Social Democrats victory with 19.4% of the vote. The conservative Homeland Union of Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė came in second with 18% of the vote, ahead of the populist Nemunas Dawn Party, which was running in the national elections for the first time and received 15%. It remained unclear whether Šimonytė’s three-party coalition would be able to retain power. Of her two liberal coalition partners, only one looked set to surpass the…