As EU citizens prepare to elect the next European Parliament, the bloc’s politics nerds are asking whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be allowed to keep the top job – and if not, then who might replace her. Whoever wants the job needs to overcome two obstacles. First, they need to be nominated by EU leaders in closed-door talks after the elections. Second, the nominee needs to be confirmed by a majority in the European Parliament. In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen only cleared that second hurdle by the skin of her teeth, with a margin of just nine votes. There’s no rea…