Turkey’s exports to Russia fell 33.7% y/y in the first quarter, according to preliminary Turkish trade ministry data, with smarter targeting of sanctions and secondary sanctions by the US seemingly taking a heavy toll. Turkey-Russia trade leapt after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with Ankara opting to maintain neutrality in the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv and thus not imposing sanctions of its own. Though Turkey’s Erdogan administration claimed to be at least adhering to Western sanctions, the US and EU grew increasingly dismayed as evidence mounted that there were acc…