In attempting to predict the sentence Judge Juan Merchan will impose on Donald Trump, we are certain of one conclusion: If the past is prologue, the sentence will not be motivated by fairness or justice; it will be the harshest sentence Merchan can impose without risking reversal or the possibility that it will help Trump’s electoral prospects. Such a vindictive sentence could take many forms, excluding actual prison time. Sentencing Trump, a first-time offender, to a prison term for a minor bookkeeping crime would virtually assure a reversal and an outcry from independent voters. But one poss…