Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 2022 deserves a place in history books for being more widely anticipated in Washington than in Moscow – or even Kyiv. In the weeks before that fateful Thursday, U.S. officials, relying on their own intelligence sources, predicted confidently that Russia was going to attack Ukraine. In contrast, senior Kremlin officials seemed taken by surprise – judging by their faces – during the Security Council meeting on 21 Feb. 2022, when Vladimir Putin tore up the Minsk agreements by recognizing the so-called Donbas People’s Republics as independent, pav…