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Romania’s central bank opted on May 13 to keep the policy rate (chart) at 7%, despite a analysts expectations that it would make the first rate cut of the anticipated policy easing cycle. The decision marks not only a mere deferral of the easing cycle,- but a deeper change in the central bank’s rhetoric, more in line with the slow but constant deterioration in the fiscal and external landscapes. This doesn’t mean a rate cut is unlikely in June, but that the amplitude of the easing cycle this year may be smaller — 1 percentage point (pp) at most — and less predictable. Previously, a small major…

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