Brett Winton, Chief Futurist at Ark Invest, took to X on Tuesday to explain the difference in numbers between betting markets and poll-based forecasts ahead of the November elections. What Happened: Winton highlighted that prediction markets have often diverged from poll-based approaches, with a significant portion of these deviations favoring Democratic odds. He expressed surprise on Tuesday over the differences between prediction markets and polls-based forecasts and noted that the deviation between platforms like Polymarket and forecasts by Nate Silver are within historical ranges. He also …
