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Over the past week, several developments suggest that momentum might be building for peace talks in Ukraine. Firstly, Ukraine appears to have made significant concessions in negotiations with bondholders, indicating the prospect of a debt restructuring by September. This urgency only makes sense if there is an expectation that the war might end soon, allowing Ukraine to access markets to support reconstruction. Eurobonds have rallied hard since July 22, reflecting how favorable the deal is for bondholders. Secondly, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s controversial visits to Kyiv, Moscow, …

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